How to read America' s early-voting numbers.
[1] FOR THE first time since August, Donald Trump hasovertaken Kamala Harris in The Economist' s statistical model of America' s presidential election. Our latest forecast gives Mr Trump a 53% chance of returning to the White House, up seven percentage points in the past week(see chart). Although the race remains more or less a coin toss, it is now weighted slightly in Mr Trump' s direction.The shift in our model reflects a steady narrowing of Ms Harris' s lead in national polls during the past month. State-specific polls published in the past week confirm that Mr Trump' s position has strengthened slightly in the plausibly decisive states.
在《经济学人》的美国总统大选概率模型中，唐纳德·特朗普自去年8月以来首次超过卡玛拉·哈里斯。我们的最新预测认为，特朗普重返白宫的几率为53%，比上周上升了7个百分点（见图表）。尽管这场竞选仍然或多或少是抛硬币，但现在它略微倾向于特朗普。我们模型的转变反映出，过去一个月，哈里斯在全国民调中的领先优势稳步缩小。过去一周发布的针对各州的民调证实，特朗普在看似具有决定性的州的地位略有加强。
[2] Clues to what will happen on November 5th are not only to be found in polls. Millions of Americans have already voted. Nobody knows whom they voted for, but it is possible to compare turnout with previous cycles and draw inferences from that.
11月5日会发生什么的线索不仅可以在民意调查中找到。数百万美国人已经投票了。没有人知道他们投了谁的票，但可以将投票率与以前的周期进行比较并从中得出推论。
[3] Both parties are putting their energy into turning out their bases. Elon Musk' s legally murky scheme to give away $1m a day to registered voters in swing states-- apparently to spur voting by supporters of Mr Trump-has lately drawn a spotlight. Yet many other less profligate attempts to lift turnout are shaping the final, frenzied days of the race between Mr Trump and Ms Harris. One group is distributing 100,000 copies of a "Liberty Knights" comic book in Philadelphia, to inspire young adults to turn out.Central Votes, which targets students at Central Michigan University, has offered inducements such as "walking tacos" (smashed-up bags of crisps mixed with ground meat), pickles on a stick ("voting is a big dil" ) and even a petting zoo with goats.
两党都在把精力投入到让自己的支持者投票上。埃隆·马斯克在摇摆州每天向注册选民赠送100万美元（显然是为了刺激特朗普的支持者投票）的法律上不明确的计划最近引起了人们的关注。然而，其他许多不那么挥霍的提高投票率的尝试正在塑造特朗普和哈里斯之间竞选的最后疯狂日子。一个团体正在费城分发10万册《自由骑士》漫画书，以激励年轻人去投票。针对中密西根大学学生的Central Votes提供了诱因，如“步行玉米卷”（混合碎肉的碎薯片袋）、泡菜（“投票就像大莳萝”），甚至还有一个有山羊的宠物动物园。
[4] Turnout in 2020 was the highest in an American election since 1900. Mr Trump' s polarising presidency was one big factor. Covid was another, as it led to emergency measures to make voting by mail easier. This time, covid restrictions have vanished but Mr Trump decidedly has not.One critical question is whether voter participation in 2024 will remain so elevated, and if not, who might benefit.Analysts are also scouring early-vote numbers for clues about who might ultimately win; some detect warning signs for the Harris campaign.
2020年的投票率是自1900年以来美国选举中最高的。特朗普总统的两极分化是一个重要因素。新冠肺炎是另一个因素，因为它导致了紧急措施，使邮寄投票更容易。这一次，新冠限制已经消失，但特朗普先生显然没有。一个关键问题是，2024年的选民参与率是否会保持如此高的水平，如果没有，谁可能受益。分析师们还在搜寻早期投票数字，以寻找谁可能最终获胜的线索；一些人发现了哈里斯竞选的警告信号。
[5] Provisional evidence suggests that voter enthusiasm remains high. Early in-person voters in Georgia have shattered records, with 1.5m turning up in the first eight days, compared with just 1m in 2020. North Carolina, another swing state, has also exceeded 2020' s comparable figures, but more modestly. Officials in Maricopa County, Arizona, the most populous jurisdiction in that swing state,project turnout similar to 2020.
初步证据表明，选民的热情仍然很高。佐治亚州的早期现场选民打破了记录，前八天出现了1.5m，而2020年只有1m。另一个摇摆州北卡罗来纳州也超过了2020年的可比数字，但幅度较小。亚利桑那州马里科帕县的官员预测投票率与2020年相似。
[6] Turnout may yet falter. If so, would this favour Mr Trump or Ms Harris? For decades, political-science research found that Republicans benefited from lower turnout caused by factors such as bad weather, while Democrats benefited from higher turnout. But Mr Trump' s takeover of the Republican Party has changed the equation. His Republican coalition now draws more from working-class voters, whereas the Democratic coalition has shifted to draw heavily on those with college degrees. This means old beliefs about turnout and partisan advantage must be reconsidered. "We can no longer make the assumption that high-turnout elections are universally good for Democrats," says Elliot Fullmer, a political scientist at Randolph-Macon College. Mr Trump' s victory in 2016, amid relatively high turnout, offers evidence for this view.
投票率可能还会下降。如果是这样，这会有利于特朗普先生还是哈里斯女士？几十年来，政治学研究发现，共和党人受益于恶劣天气等因素导致的低投票率，而民主党人受益于更高的投票率。但特朗普先生接管共和党改变了政治格局。他的共和党联盟现在更多地吸引工人阶级选民，而民主党联盟已经转向大量吸引拥有大学学位的人。这意味着必须重新考虑有关投票率和党派优势的旧信念。“我们不能再假设高投票率选举对民主党人普遍有利，”兰多夫-梅肯学院的政治学家埃利奥特·富尔默说。特朗普先生在2016年的胜利，在相对较高的投票率下,为这一观点提供了证据。
